We all know how our lives can change in good or bad ways in a blink of an eye, on any given day. Human history is filled with these moments, these inflection points. 63 years ago in October 1962, we were in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The U.S. and the Soviet Union were on the brink of nuclear war. And then on October 28, the crisis was averted because wise leaders from both countries understood what was at stake, engaged in diplomacy, made important decisions, and they compromised.
Once again, October 28 – next Tuesday – is a day of great significance. It will be just 100 days before New START, the last remaining treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, expires. Is this another historical inflection point that will ignite a full-blown nuclear arms race or will it be a moment when wise leaders pull us back from the nuclear brink and choose diplomacy and cooperation over conflict and the naive belief that technology, more weaponry, and nuclear deterrence will keep us safe?
Arms Race or Arms Control?
Signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and his then Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) limits each country’s deployed strategic nuclear weapons to no more than 1,550, and its delivery systems (i.e. missiles and bombers) to no more than 700. The treaty includes significant provisions for compliance, verification, and confidence building. The U.S. and Russia agreed to a 5-year extension in February 2021. In 2023, Russia suspended its participation in the verification measures included in that treaty, but agreed to stay within the limits of deployed strategic nuclear weapons and delivery systems. New START will formally expire on February 5, 2026 and the full treaty cannot be extended.
The expiration of New START, without some agreement between the U.S. and Russia to continue to abide by its warhead and delivery system limits, would be a major setback for global efforts to prevent nuclear war. This could lead to an increase in global nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades – after years of successful arms control and progress in reducing the number of nuclear weapons on the planet.
The Arms Control Association (ACA) and other experts point out that the United States could quickly increase its deployed nuclear stockpile by uploading more of its so-called hedge (or non-deployed) warheads onto existing missiles. Unfortunately, such a move might, according to ACA, “undermine mutual and global security by making the existing balance of nuclear terror more unpredictable and would set into motion a counterproductive, costly action-reaction cycle of nuclear competition.” Put more simply – this could lead to a full blown nuclear arms race.
A Good Idea?
So what might happen in the next 100 days and what role can we play? On September 22, Vladimir Putin publicly proposed that the U.S. and Russia continue to adhere to New START limits for one year. Two weeks later, when asked by a reporter, President Trump said it sounded like “a good idea to me.” That’s the good news — both leaders seem to understand that staying within New START limits is in their country’s, and the world’s, best interest.
The bad news is that the two countries have not found a way to decouple this imperative from the equally important imperative of ending the horrific war Russia is waging against Ukraine. Moreover, it’s fair to say few people have the ability to exert considerable influence or pressure on either Vladimir Putin, or Donald Trump.
But that does not mean we are powerless or voiceless for the simple reason that nobody wants nuclear war — not Vladimir Putin, not Donald Trump, not Republicans, not Democrats, not any of us.
This is our moment, these next 100 days (and beyond), to shine a bright spotlight on the importance of revitalizing nuclear disarmament diplomacy and the choices before us. The world has been here before at the height of the Cold War in the 1980s, and the voices, activism, and leadership of millions of people around the world helped steer leaders onto a safer path and resulted in significant arms control agreements, notably the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty.
Put another way — this is a moment for leadership — from more members of Congress, from our local, county, and state elected officials, and from all of us. There’s no shortage of actions one can take:
- Call or write your members of Congress to cosponsor H. Res. 317 and S. Res. 323
- Contact your mayor, state representatives or city/town councilors
- Post on social media (don’t forget to tag Back from the Brink on Facebook, Instagram, and Bluesky)
- Write a letter to the editor
- Host a gathering to watch A House of Dynamite (request a watch party package)
If you’d like to discuss how to get more engaged with our campaign, you can also reach out to Jeremy Love, our organizing and outreach consultant, at jeremy@preventnuclearwar.org.
